There are 11 remaining college football unbeatens. Predicting when each will lose
There are 11 unbeaten college football teams in the Bowl Subdivision as the regular season crosses over the midway point, down from the 22 teams still perfect heading into October. The number dwindles every week; this past Saturday saw Ohio State lose for the first time in an epic Big Ten bout against Oregon.
What's interesting is this: Of these 11 unbeatens, just two are scheduled to play this season — Army and Navy in that annual rivalry, set to be held on the Saturday after the release of the final College Football Playoff rankings.
That leaves the possibility of multiple unbeaten teams, most in the Power Four, heading into conference championship weekend. In part as a result of conference expansion, you could see unbeaten teams meeting in early December to decide the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten.
History tells us that won't happen. Michigan, Washington and Florida State were the only perfect teams heading into last year's postseason. In 2022, it was only the Wolverines and Georgia.
So look for the list of 11 teams to get trimmed down to normal size in the coming weeks. Here's where each team is slated to see a perfect run come to end:
No. 1 Texas (6-0)
First loss: Sometime in the playoff. (If at all.)
The lone unbeaten team in the SEC, Texas has often looked dominant in rising to the top of the US LBM Coaches Poll. Most recently, the Longhorns picked apart Oklahoma in a 34-3 despite getting Quinn Ewers' struggles getting back on track after missing two games to injury. The biggest test comes next in a Georgia team that hasn't quite rebounded from an earlier loss to Alabama. Texas is the favorite against the Bulldogs, and for good reason.
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No. 2 Oregon (6-0)
First loss: Big Ten championship game vs. Ohio State, Dec. 7.
It may be too early to pencil both teams into a rematch in Indianapolis, especially since Ohio State needs to get past Penn State on the road early next month. But after a thrilling game this past Saturday, the Ducks and Buckeyes have to be favored to play again in under two months with a first-round playoff bye on the line. This time, here's betting on Ohio State making the most of this second chance.
No. 3 Penn State (6-0)
First loss: vs. Ohio State, Nov. 2.
Not to say the Nittany Lions won't or can't beat the Buckeyes. One reason for major optimism is the growth of an offense finding its groove under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. But history can't be ignored: Penn State has dropped seven in a row in this series, three coming in State College, even if more than half of those losses have come by single digits.
No. 6 Miami (6-0)
First loss: at Georgia Tech, Nov. 9.
Recent close calls against Virginia Tech and California have raised some doubts about Miami's ability to run the table even against a very manageable ACC schedule. On the other hand, these are close games the program probably would've lost earlier in coach Mario Cristobal's tenure, which has to stand for something. Let's bet on the Hurricanes passing this Saturday's test at Louisville and winning against Duke and Florida State at home before dropping a road trip to Georgia Tech next month. The Yellow Jackets have won three of five in the series.
No. 12 Iowa State (6-0)
First loss: vs. Texas Tech, Nov. 2.
The schedule plays out in a way that Iowa State could be unblemished heading into the finale against Kansas State in late November. The team's week-to-week improvement and high ceiling makes that a realistic scenario, especially given that Iowa State misses Brigham Young, Arizona State and Colorado. Instead, the second-half schedule consists of Central Florida, Texas Tech, Kansas, Cincinnati, Utah and the aforementioned K-State game. While admitting the possibility of an 11-0 start, let's roll the dice on the Cyclones losing at home to a Texas Tech team that has won four in a row after a slow start.
No. 13 Brigham Young (6-0)
First loss: vs. Oklahoma State, Saturday.
BYU continues to fly under the radar despite very good wins against SMU and Kansas State. This runs ends on Saturday. Oklahoma State has dropped off the map with three losses in a row but will rebound coming off an open week to kick off another second-half surge for Mike Gundy and the Cowboys.
No. 18 Indiana (6-0)
First loss: vs. Nebraska, Saturday.
Indiana has been one of the great success stories in the Power Four under new coach Curt Cignetti. Nebraska presents a different test than what the Hoosiers have faced to date because of the Cornhuskers' elite defense, which hit a brief snag in the loss to Illinois but still ranks sixth nationally in yards allowed per play.
No. 20 Pittsburgh (6-0)
First loss: vs. Syracuse, Saturday.
The Panthers probably should've lost at least twice already — though you have to give some credit to a team that won just three times last year but has found a way to remain unbeaten through the midseason mark. Kyle McCord and the Orange present a very tough test for a defense that ranks 101st nationally in passing yards allowed per game, though Pittsburgh is a slightly more impressive 62nd in yards allowed per attempt. Syracuse ranks second in the FBS in yards through the air per game and first by a wide margin with 47.8 throws per game.
No. 24 Army (6-0)
First loss: at North Texas, Nov. 9.
That Army hasn't played anybody of consequence makes it a hard team to peg down, though you have to admire the way the Black Knights have dismantled teams such as Rice, Temple and Alabama-Birmingham. Look for that trend to continue against another two overmatched opponents - East Carolina and Air Force - before the North Texas high-powered offense proves too much for them to handle. The Mean Green one of six teams in the FBS and just two in the Group of Five averaging more than 500 yards of offense per game.
Liberty (5-0)
First loss: vs. Jacksonville State, Oct. 30.
Liberty's unbeaten record could last all the way to a home date with Western Kentucky on Nov. 23, if not all the way into the postseason. But the Flames could get stomped by a Jacksonville State squad that has rebounded to win three games in a row, the last two in Conference USA action. Those three wins have come by a combined score of 161-44 and seen the Gamecocks run for a total of 991 yards with a remarkable 18 rushing scores.
Navy (5-0)
First loss: vs. Notre Dame (in East Rutherford, N.J.), Oct. 26.
Unlike Army, the Midshipmen have some national credibility due to a win against Memphis on Sept. 21. A strong run to open this season will continue with a win Saturday against Charlotte, but Navy would need to put together a herculean effort to upset Notre Dame a week later on a neutral site.